The Very Best Coverage of the Internet TV Era And the
Broadband and Home Network Infrastructure that It�ll Need

Issue 913
January 23-29, 2015

 

THIS WEEK'S HEADLINES

ULTRA HIGH DEFINITION

OTT SERVICES, APPS AND SCREENS

OTT

SECOND SCREEN

ENABLING TECHNOLOGY

BROADBAND BEAT

LTE BROADCAST

WIRELESS BROADBAND

LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS

DIGI GRAMS

 


THE ONLINE REPORTER is published weekly by Rider Research; 13188 Perkins Road; Baton Rouge, LA 70810, USA Telephone: 1-225-769-7130; Fax: 1-225-769-7166; www.riderresearch.com

Subscription: $595 / £395 single reader e-mail; available at quantity discounts to groups, departments and companies. North America : Charles Hall [email protected] Europe : Simon Thompson [email protected]; Buckingham, UK; Tel +44 1280 820560


Time Warner Cable Tests Live 4K Sports Broadcasts with Sony�s F55 4K Cameras
- �The Chameleon Camera� Does Cinematography & Live Broadcasts � All in 4K and at up to 60 fps
- Successful Proof of Concept at Two Live Sporting Events
- Sony Ready to Provide End-to-End 4K Solutions
The technology to broadcast live sports and TV shows in 4K is here.

Four of Sony�s F55 4K cameras were used in two recent proof-of-concept tests of 4K broadcasting that Time Warner Cable and its Time Warner Cable Sports conducted in December 2015. Two live sports events were used for the tests: the California Interscholastic Federation (CIF) high school football Division I Championship game and an NBA regular season game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors.

�These tests successfully demonstrated the practicality of 4K broadcasts,� said Dan Perry of Sony Electronics. �Consumer awareness of 4K content is growing, 4K production and distribution is making incredible progress and Sony is ready to provide end-to-end 4K solutions.�

Sony calls its F55 the chameleon camera because it supports both cinematography and live television broadcasting. It shoots both onboard 4K and 2K/HD. Sony said the F55 �can change personality depending on the needs of the project, the day or the individual shot� and will serve its owners well now and far into the future.

Sony said the F55 camera shoots fast action scenes well � everything �from stunts and explosions to the fall of a single raindrop.� It called the F55 �a powerful storytelling tool.� The frame rates can be set from 1 frame per second (fps) to the maximum fps in 1 fps increments. It does 60 fps, which is needed for fast action scenes and produces 4K RAW, XAVC 4K and XAVC HD out of the box. More details about the camera and a demonstration video are at: https://pro.sony.com/bbsc/ssr/show-highend/resource.solutions.bbsccms-assets-show-highend-F55.shtml

Sony said the tests used a range of professional 4K production equipment to simulate aspects of a typical live broadcast: production, transport to the studio, processing and final distribution to the home.

Each event was also televised in HD on Time Warner Cable SportsNet.

The F55 can transmit 4K videos for live broadcasts to devices as far away as 2,000 meters using SMPTE-standard fiber cables.

Sony said the tests also used Sony�s PWS-4400 XAVC server in two different applications:
- As a 4K clip server attached to the MVS switcher, configured to playback the two 4K signals (key and fill) required for the logo replays
- To record the 4K program output from the MVS switcher. While the server is in record mode, it can stream MXF files directly to an external HDD so that within seconds of the event�s completion, the MXF file was completely transferred so production teams didn�t need to wait for data to be offloaded.

The only thing that owners of UHD TVs need now is for a pay TV or OTT service to start making live sports in 4K available. The major OTT services have their 4K infrastructure in place. The pay TV companies do not. Which will be first to broadcast live events in 4K? Even more importantly, which will be doing the majority of it by the end of the decade?

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Cablecos� Lead in Speed May Be Insurmountable for Telcos
- Do You Want 45 Mbps for $64.95 or 50 Mbps for $49.99?
- Or Maybe 100 Mbps for $69.95 or Even 150 Mbps for $79.99 ?
- Compared to AT&T�s Top Speed of 45 Mbps
By Charles Hall

We have been tracking the broadband and home network business for over 15 years. Sometimes we have questions that no one seems to want to answer. Here�s one.

How can telcos afford to deploy VDSL2 Vectoring, G.fast and other faster broadband technologies when cablecos have such a lead in speed? For example, Cox Communications recently doubled my speed from 50 Mbps to 100 Mbps (I actually average 112 down and 13 up) with no contract and no increase in monthly rate. Other cablecos are doing something similar. By comparison AT&T offers a maximum of 18 Mbps at my address and charged only $5 a month less for 18 Mbps than Cox charges for 50 Mbps.

AT&T�s Broadband Rate for My Address
Requires 12 month contract
Plan Mbps Monthly rate
Elite 6 $34.95
Max 12 $39.95
Max plus 18 $44.95
Power 45 $64.95
AT&T�s Web page says these prices are after deducting a $16.05 monthly discount. For details, see: https://www.att.com/shop/internet/u-verse-internet.html#fbid=Qc5s06gfOdG

Cox charges $60 a month for 100 Mbps. It also has less expensive rates that are slower, for example, 50 Mbps for $49.95, only $5 more than AT&T charges for 18 Mbps.

Cox is very specific that it�s comparing its rates and speeds to the telcos DSL broadband. See: http://www.cox.com/residential/internet/speed-test.cox

Here are Cox�s current rates at my address. (All broadband is local!)

Cox�s Broadband Rate for My Address
Requires 12 month contract
Plan Speed Monthly rate
Internet Essential 5 $34.99
Internet Preferred 50 $49.99
Internet Premier 100 $59.99
Internet Ultimate 150 $79.99
Prices are for 12 months and include cloud storage whose size depends on the broadband package that is selected.

Warning: Broadband rates vary from locality to locality even from the same company. They also change somewhat frequently.

The AT&T and Cox broadband packages shown here do not require the subscriber to take a pay TV or telephone subscription.

Is It Worth the Cost?
How much will it cost AT&T and other telcos to upgrade their copper wire networks to provide 100 Mbps? And by that time, cablecos such as Cox will already be using the 3.1 version of DOCSIS to offer upwards of 1 Gbps � and more.

We don�t know yet why a residence would need such speeds but Google and others believe that if you build faster broadband networks, then the applications that need those speeds will come.

Can the telcos ever catch up? Although less expensive to deploy than all-fiber networks, telcos� costs to upgrade to G.fast will be sizeable because the fiber node in the neighborhood has to be within 400 meters of the residence, which increase deployment costs.

The exception to this is telcos that have already installed all-fiber networks such as Verizon in 70% of its footprint and others, mostly smaller telcos and independents such as Google Fiber.

And, can telcos financially justify the upgrades when the number of their broadband subscribers is heading downward? And, after they have lost so many landline telephone subscribers?

And why would a subscriber ever switch back from a cableco to a telco. My @cox.com address is already in my email and in the address books of everyone with whom I exchange email.

AT&T�s CEO Randall Stephenson has said that AT&T is not a pay TV company and gave that as a reason for buying the very successful DirecTV. But broadband-based OTT services have already started causing a decline in the number of pay TV subscribers. People want to watch when they want and on a device of their choosing. Satellite TV cannot offer that � except as a broadband service.

Stephenson said AT&T is a broadband company but we ask how long that will last with its slow speeds compared to the cablecos and at their current rate of broadband subscriber losses. Everyone knows that broadband is the future of delivering content to the home � even DirecTV whose currently announced 4K program is only available over a broadband connection. Will AT&T�s DirecTV become dependent primarily on the cablecos to deliver its content? Without massive investment, will AT&T�s current wireline broadband ever be capable of delivering multiple streams of 4K content at about 25 Mbps per stream, which is recommended by Netflix, the leader in delivering 4K over the Net?

AT&T has its own reasons for what it�s doing, some of which we may never know. One of them that we do know is that DirecTV plans to launch more satellites so it can beam 4K directly to subscribers� homes, bypassing wireline broadband. But that�s a one-way communication and does not allow the interactivity that many like except over a wireline broadband connection, which is more likely to be a cableco�s than not.

AT&T knows it has to leapfrog the cablecos and keep up with Google Fiber by building all-fiber networks. It is currently offering its all-fiber U-verse GigaPower broadband in parts of Austin, Dallas, Ft Worth, Raleigh and Winston-Salem. Cities in its plans for the future are at: http://www.att.com/att/gigapowercities

What is hard to understand is how telcos can financially justify spending billions to build faster wireline broadband networks in the face of what cablecos have already done and are continuing to do � faster speeds at about the same monthly rates, which is definitely a pre-emptive move that�s targeted at the telcos.

What to Do?
Consumers need more broadband competitors to select from, not fewer, so they need telcos to prosper in wireline broadband.

What should telcos do? Hurry! Begin deploying as quickly and prudently as possible whatever combination of advanced wireline broadband technologies that best fits their various geographies and network infrastructure. There�s a big difference between what to install in sparsely populated areas, in suburban areas and densely populated cities. Telcos have a wide variety of broadband technologies to select from: cellular, VDSL2 vectoring, G.fast, FTTdp Vinax and FTTdp Vplus. But the cablecos aren�t waiting for the telcos. They are moving briskly ahead in deploying faster broadband and keeping prices low.

There�s a lot of talk about using cellular networks in the future to deliver content but so far those cellular broadband technologies have limitations in terms of capacity and the ability to provide consistent bandwidth that�s capable of delivering multiple flicker-free video streams. AT&T and Verizon seem particularly intent on using cellular networks in the future to augment and/or replace some of their copper wire networks.

It took cablecos too many years to start aggressively advertising their superiority in broadband speed. But they are doing that now � often even specifically referring to �DSL� as if it�s a dirty word. They�re not likely to ease up now that they have a sizeable technological lead. If anything cablecos should ramp up their broadband marketing efforts while they have a sizeable speed superiority that consumers can easily see and now that consumers are becoming increasingly fans of OTT service and, soon, UHD TVs.

The sun is shining on the cablecos and their broadband network. Now is the time for cablecos to make hay!

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The Days of Pricey Cellular Service Are Ending
Who says big price decreases can�t unexpectedly occur in any industry? Oil prices are down over about 50% in the last year. In some States gasoline prices are as low as $1.50 per gallon, down from well over $3 a gallon.

There is a major revolution taking place in the consumer cellular industry. One part involves pricing, one part involves eliminating the requirement for a contract and the third involves the move to Wi-Fi delivered phone calls and Internet connections when the subscriber is away from home.

Following in the trail originally blazed by T-Mobile USA and then followed by Sprint, Verizon and AT&T, which have quietly started offering no-contract plans at reasonable monthly rates. The terms are strictly month-to-month. The subscriber buys the phone. Here for examples are prices and rates for the pre-paid service from Verizon, the US� largest cellco.

1. Phone Prices:
Verizon offers a number of phones at: http://www.verizonwireless.com/prepaid/smartphone-plans

Examples of current prices are:
Model Price in dollars
Samsung Gusto, a basic flip phone $50
iPhone 4 $100
iPhone 4S $150
iPhone 5S $550
Samsung Galaxy S5 White $600
There is no activation fee. Walmart offers the same Samsung Gusto for $12.99 but Verizon charges $35 to activate it.

2. Monthly Rates:
Verizon charges $45 a month for:
- Unlimited talk time, text and picture messaging in the US
- 1GB of data and additional data is available for a fee with a 90-day carry over
T-Mobile USA has typically kept its monthly rates lower than Verizon�s and offered more free monthly data.

3. Free public access Wi-Fi:
Free Wi-Fi hotspots are increasingly available. For example, the cablecos in the States have banded together a near-nationwide archipelago of Wi-Fi hotspots that are free to all of their subscribers. Cellular customers can of course connect free to the Wi-Fi in their homes and offices plus most hotels, coffee shops and many stores.

This change has already taken place in France where Free took the lead in reducing monthly rates and eliminating onerous contract terms by creating a network of cells and Wi-Fi hotspots. See: http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/03/how-the-telecom-company-free-disrupted-the-mobile-landscape-in-france

The change has recently started in the UK and has now come to the States.

US cellular companies that once boosted big profit margins have started struggling with the latest trend.

The move benefits content companies who will find their audience can spend less on delivery and more on content.

These trends in the cellular industry may not have as big an impact as the recent decline in oil prices is having on consumers and oil companies but declining cellular rates will keep money in consumers� wallets and purses � and bring some angst to the bottom lines of Verizon and AT&T.

There�s No Free Lunch
Tim Hoettges, the chairman of Deutsche Telekom (DT), which owns two-thirds of T-Mobile USA, this week warned that T-Mobile�s gains in the United States are short term and that it needs greater scale in the US to compete against AT&T and Verizon. The FCC recently rejected a bid by Sprint to acquire T-Mobile USA because it reduced the number of major cellular services. Hoettges is particularly concerned about being financially able to bid for more spectrum against AT&T, Verizon and Sprint, which have greater financial resources. He estimated that T-Mobile USA needs to invest between $4 billion and $5 billion each year just to keep up. T-Mobile USA is not exactly a money spinner. It lost $94 million on revenue of $7.4 billion.

DT may not be able to let T-Mobile USA continue its aggressive marketing approach for long, but the horse has left the barn. It�s not just that cellular services cost consumers less, it�s also the threat of free Wi-Fi that�s pressuring cellular rates.

Wouldn�t it be good for consumers if there were, like in cellular, a similar situation in wireline broadband:
- 4 major nationwide competitors instead of two � the cableco and the telco
- Lots of local cellular services
- Third party resellers such as Walmart who sell services that use other companies� networks
- A free or near free wireless service such as the one that Elon Musk is planning for his SpaceX, in which the broadband addict Google is thinking about investing $1 billion.

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Intel�s Black Hole: Mobile

Mobile chips continue to create a black hole in Intel�s finances, which reported an operating loss of $4.21bn for 2014, in otherwise solid results, according to Wireless Watch. Although Intel, for the first time, can claim to be a credible mobile processor vendor, it has spent billions of dollars in acquisitions, R&D, subsidies and losses to get there, and is still tiny compared to Qualcomm (it sold 46 million mobile SoCs last year, according to its filings). Its use of subsidies to boost its tablet market share meant that the mobile division made negative sales in the fourth quarter of 2014, as well as a loss which would have wiped out the total profits of most rivals - all of them except Qualcomm and TSMC, according to Bloomberg.

For the complete analysis of Intel�s earnings, please email [email protected]

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Four Trends that Are Driving the Digital Media Industry

1. Sales of UHD TVs will surprise even the most optimistic forecasts because they are now priced for the mass market. As a result, broadband-delivered 4K content will begin blipping upwards in 2015 for the first time at broadband companies. That�s even though there is very little 4K content available � it is probably less than one-tenth of all content that�s available to consumers.

2. Telcos are beginning to deploy next-generation DSL broadband technologies such as VDSL2 vectoring, G.fast and other FTTdp (distribution points) that, they hope, will help them compete against cablecos� faster DOCSIS technology � and, unlike all-fiber networks, at prices telcos can justify. Cablecos are raising the hurdle for telcos by offering faster speeds at little of no increase in monthly rates.

3. The declines that are already well underway in the monthly rates for mobile phones and tablets will begin impacting the bottom lines of cellcos � down � and content owners � up.

4. Pay TV companies will accelerate their efforts at offering a) 4K content and b) OTT services. Sports may prove to be a differentiator compared to OTT services.

Words Matter
We use the terms telco and cableco rather than carrier to specifically differentiate them and their very different broadband technologies.
We once called for them both to be called �digital service providers� but the differences in their broadband and pay TV technologies are too great for that:
- Cableco: entirely with fiber-to-a-neighborhood node (FTTN) and copper wire (coax) from node to home
- Telcos: mostly with copper-wired based DSL broadband and transitioning to some type of fiber to a node (FTTN) in the neighborhood and from there to the home over existing copper telephone wires. They are technologies such as VDSL2 vectoring, G.fast or FTTdp (distribution point) for the existing copper wire connection to the residence.
Then there are two types of FTTH service providers:
- Telcos that have built all FTTH networks in all or some of their footprint such as Verizon, which has FTTH in 70% of it footprint
- Fibercos: (a new term) that have built FTTH from the ground up such as Google Fiber or local utilities.

Comments? Email [email protected]

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ULTRA HIGH DEFINITION (UHD)

Four Words for the 4K Naysayers: 4K Is Not 3D!

4K is not 3D. 3D TVs needed 3D content. That�s not true for UHD TVs that upconvert lower resolutions to near 4K quality. 3D TVs didn�t upconvert non-3D content to 3D. The viewer needed special 3D glasses to watch 3D TVs. There are no 4K glasses. 3D required scenes to be shot simultaneously with multiple cameras. That�s not true for 4K so productions costs will be less for 4K than 3D.

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Sony Bulks up Its UHD TVs for 2015

Sony wasn�t nearly as active during 2014 in the under-$2,000 UHD market, not nearly as much as Samsung, LG and Vizio. That remained true at CES. However, Sony was active at CES in launching new and better UHD TVs as well as 4K capable cameras plus a line of Hi-Res �high resolution� audio products. At CES Sony announced:

1. 11 new 4K Bravia LCD TVs in three series that will come to market in 2015. It will include the world�s thinnest series of TVs (approximately 4.9 mm at their thinnest point) and the first with Hi-Res capable speakers.

2. Sony is using its X1 4K Processor to upconvert non-4K content to near 4K and to enhance native 4K content. The UHD TVs continue to have the H.265/HEVC (High Efficiency Video Coding) video compression technology, which is needed to decompress 4K streams. For the first time the TVs also support Google�s VP9 format, which YouTube uses.

3. All Sony�s UHD and other smart TVs will use Android operating system to increase cross-functionality between TV and mobile devices. Sony is going against a trend. Its two major rivals are using their own OS � Samsung its Tizen and LG its WebOS. Vizio, its other major rival in the States is like Sony using Android.

4. Sony says its One-Flick Entertainment interface �provides a unique user experience with intuitive flick-operation via touchpad remote to access a library of content just a flick away.�

5. Sony said it�s bringing �a new level of 4K technology to its digital imaging line� such as the new 4K capable Action Cam model, a wearable that competes against the GoPro models. Sony�s new 4K-capable Handycam camcorder is 30% smaller and 20% lighter than the current model and has Sony�s proprietary Balanced Optical SteadyShot technology.

6. Sony is plowing old ground and planting new crops in audio. Its new Hi-Res line of products provides �superior listening from inside the home to on-the-go.� There are 10 new devices including a high-end Hi-Res Walkman, headphones, wireless speakers, home theater systems and multi-channel integrated amplifiers.

7. Sony�s new LDAC codec technology compresses audio files so they can transmit approximately 3 times the amount of audio data as is currently possible with existing technologies. That means users can listen to higher quality music wirelessly over Bluetooth. Sony�s SongPal Link feature, which is in the new products, enables simultaneous audio playback through multiple connected devices.

8. Sony showed a number of SmartWear devices and services.

9. Sony showed products in its Life Space UX concept, including a 4K Ultra Short Throw Projector that can be placed at the foot of a wall to �transform the entire wall into a life-size window into another world with an expansive 147 inch image that boasts four times the clarity of Full HD.� It plans to release a tiny Portable Ultra Short Throw �approximately 10 cm per side � that can project a 50 inch image on any wall in the home.

10. There were three models of its Symphonic Light, an audio-emitting light fixture �that can fill a room with crystal clear sound.� It also introduced a bulb-shaped speaker that�s also a light bulb.

Sony�s UHD TV strategy appears to be aimed at the high-end � UHD sets selling for $2,000 and up. That�s where margins are best. It avoids the �race-to-the-bottom� in which Samsung, LG and, in the States, Vizio are involved and in which Chinese set makers such as Seiki Digital, TCL, Haier, Skyworth and Hisense are expected to make a dent � a very big dent if they can overcome their upconversion shortcomings. But Sony may be the least impacted by the low-end newcomers.

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DivX, Altech Emphasize OTT in New 4K STBs
-Due Out Mid 2015

Altech Multimedia, a set-top box making division of Allied Technologies Limited, will integrate DivX�s HEVC technology into its new line of STBs, making them capable of receiving and playing 4K video.

Both Altech and DivX emphasized streaming video in their respective announcements about the 4K STBs. �[Altech�s] investment in our technology shows pay TV operators, OTT providers and even traditional service providers that DivX can enable their premium entertainment services on virtually any screen,� said DivX president and CEO Kanaan Jemili.

�We are prepared with best-in-class solutions�both AVC and HEVC�for premium over-the-top video services,� said Marco Caputo, Altech�s VP of sales and marketing.

Altech�s UHD STBs will use Broadcom�s BCM 7252, which supports 4K resolution playback at 60 frames per second. The STBs will appear in mid-2015. Altech�s STBs are used by digital broadcasters across China, Australia, South Africa and India. The 4K- capable STBs will be made available both through retailers and service providers.

DivX was acquired earlier this year by NeuLion, an OTT solution provider. A representative told The Online Reporter at CES that NeuLion is developing UHD OTT solutions for content owners, which was partly impetus for the company to acquire DivX. �The transaction will place the combined company at the forefront of the global shift to 4K video and over-the-top services in the fast-growing online video market,� the company said about the acquisition. NeuLion�s OTT solutions are used by sports leagues NHL, NFL, NBA and UFC, pay TV provider Rogers and CCTV.

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Fire up That New UHD TV or JVC Projector: UltraFlix Adds 11 More 4K Movies
- JVC Signs up for Its 4K Home Theater Projectors

You can argue about whether NanoTech Entertainment�s UltraFlix offers the largest selection of blockbuster 4K content but you can�t argue about whether it has the most - because it does, and it�s getting better.

NanoTech has signed a global licensing deal with Crystal Sky Pictures for 11 new titles for its UltraFlix UHD OTT service. NanoTech�s 4K Studios is in the process of scanning and uploading the films for what it calls an �immersive 4K viewing.�

So get one of those new-fangled UHD TVs or, even better, one of JVC�s home theater 4K projectors and start watching some flicks with Jon Voight, Meat Loaf, Madeline Kahn and Michelle Pfeiffer. The new titles include:
- �Baby Geniuses 5,� a live-action/animation movie with Jon Voight and Skyler Shaye
- �The Final Song,� a romantic comedy with Bonnie Paul and John O Nelson
- �Falling in Love Again,� a romantic comedy with Michelle Pfeiffer and Elliott Gould
- �Slapstick of Another Kind,� an American comic science fiction film starring Jerry Lewis, Madeline Kahn and Marty Feldman
- �Absolute Killers (aka Witness Insecurity, aka Snitch),� with Edward Furlong and Meat Loaf
- �Deadly Lessons,� a murder mystery with a twist staring Jon Voight
- �Tekken 2 Kazuya�s Revenge� is based on the bestselling videogame franchise from Namco and stars Kane Kosugi, Cary Tagawa
- �Baby Geniuses 4� with Jon Voight, Skyler Shaye
- �Chavez Cage of Glory, a sports drama with Hector Echavarria and Danny Trejo
- �Beyond,� a supernatural thriller with Jon Voight, Teri Polo, and Dermot Mulroney
- �Pizza Man,� an action-packed superhero comedy starring Frankie Muniz and Stan Lee

NanoTech Lands JVC for 4K Home Theater Projectors
NanoTech this week said it has a deal with JVC (JVCKENWOOD USA Corporation), under which some distributors of JVC home theater projectors will show in their showrooms� NanoTech�s Nuvola NP-1 4K Media Player and UltraFlix 4K OTT service, which comes preinstalled on the NP-1 player. Because the NP-1 player uses the Android operating system, users also get access to Webs sites and to thousands of video games and apps from Nvidia�s Tegra Zone and the Google�s Play Store.

JVC distributors� showrooms are used for dealer trainings and to provide integrators with a place to bring prospective customers for demos.

JVC�s projectors have its 4K e-shift3 technology that accepts Native 4K 60P through their 4K-capable HDMI inputs and up-converts existing 1080P sources to 4K precision.

UltraFlix is now up to more than 500 hours of �pristine� content, including 25 made-for-IMAX theatrical titles, 50 superstar concerts and a wide selection of action/thriller, comedy, drama and family movies as well as breath-taking extreme sports videos, TV shows and 100 hours of dazzling free content.

�One of the biggest issues facing the 4K projector market has been a lack of available content,� said Roger West at JVC. �With NanoTech�s Nuvola NP-1 and UltraFlix able to bring more than 500 hours of 4K Ultra HD content to our D-ILA 4K Projector customers distributors, the availability of 4K content is no longer an issue. That creates a compelling value proposition for the JVC distributors we�re targeting with this special offer as well as their dealers and their dealers� customers.�

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Pay TV Has Peaked
- What Media Companies Are Doing about It

Pay TV has hit its peak, The Online Reporter recently reported, after several major pay TV channels said they�d begin offering OTT services. Leichtman Research has confirmed what we said in that article and in a new report called �Welcome to the Internet TV Era.� Leichtman reported that the 13 largest US pay TV providers lost almost 150,000 pay TV subscribers in 2014�s fourth quarter.

�Welcome to the Internet TV Era� explains why and how mainstream media companies such as CBS, Disney, Time Warner and Viacom are in a rush to launch Over-the-Top services that�ll compete against Netflix and other OTT services � in addition to and/or as replacements for their pay TV channels.

The report is a to-the-point executive Briefing Paper for executives and managers. It describes the state of the media industry and reveals what media companies are doing. It was prepared by The Online Reporter.

The topics are:
- Yes, We�ve Reached Peak Pay TV
- The Rise of Broadband-Delivered Services and Web Video
- Emerging Viewing Patterns and the Role of the Millennials
- Legal Issues: Net Neutrality and the Meaning of MVPD
- Conclusion: The Future Entertainment Landscape

The price of the report is $295 for a single reader. Multi-reader rates are available. Details, prices and purchase at:
http://www.onlinereporter.com/research-reports/welcome-to-the-internet-tv-era-report

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OTT

Amazon, Netflix and the New Movie Business
-SVoD Services Threaten Film Economics

Movie theaters may become collateral damage as the Internet TV era gets underway. Studios have experimented with straight-to-digital releases over the past few years, but recent events have brought more bite to the prospect of the digital film premiere.

�I�m excited about the changes that are happening in digital distribution, and the falling costs of distribution,� said John Calkins, president of programming at US theater chain AMC Entertainment. �Digital brings a flood of content production and access to consumers.�

Calkins was speaking on a panel about multi-platform consumers. He pointed to Netflix�s upcoming film releases and a recent announcement to show a handful of episodes of HBO�s �Game of Thrones� on IMAX screens as indications that the multi-platform nature of consumers� entertainment behaviors are affecting the theaters as much as, say, the pay TV providers. There are other examples he could have mentioned: Sony�s �The Interview� or Spike Lee�s latest film �Da Sweet Blood of Jesus,� which will debut on Vimeo before its theatrical debut.

Internet TV services are flipping the theatrical window release paradigm on its head, Calkins said. SVoD services such as Netflix and Amazon have been typically at the end of a film�s release life cycle. The head of that cycle has been the theaters, followed by purchase to own and pay TV VoD, then rentals, then syndication on TV and SVoD services.

�Today, the roll of the theaters in the ecosystem is setting up downstream value, whether its home entertainment type stocking decisions for DVDs � how big was this title? � or directly influencing the pricing of a pay TV contract,� Calkins said.

Digital and online outlets have been making their way up the chain for a few years now � punctuated by SVoD services in 2015 wanting to be at the top of the ladder of film distribution, and getting there by commissioning and releasing their own, original titles.

But as the windows between theatrical release and streaming video continue to shorten, or are even skipped altogether, it�s unclear how the economics of film production and distribution will be affected. �It�s one of the reasons why thinking about exhibitions [theaters] as windows evolve is so tricky,� Calkins said. �When you run the math, the couple that goes to the movies sets up for the studio roughly $25 of value in the downstream windows. It�s hard to migrate that to another platform.�

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Sony�s Online Release Hits $40m

Sony Pictures� doomed comedy �The Interview� has now generated over $40 million in revenue from online sales and on-demand rentals, making it a huge success by digital release standards, and a surprising turn-around for the film that most thought was doomed.

The film has been rented or purchased over 5.8 million times between its release December 24 and January 18. The film is available on YouTube and Google Play, Apple�s iTunes, Xbox Video and PlayStation, and through many pay TV on-demand platforms.

Despite its online success, some industry members, such as Patrick Corcoran, VP of the National Association of Theatre Owners, predict Sony will still lose money on the film, which cost around $44 million to make, and another $30 million spent in marketing. Still, the film is on track to become the most successful online launch. The current record holder is �Bridesmaids� a comedy that made $40 million online in 2012.

After its brief exclusivity as a digital download and rental, the film has already moved into the SVoD window � the precise issue about which Calkins warned audience members at CES. Netflix will begin streaming the film this weekend, and Sony has said �The Interview� will appear on its ad-supported OTT service, Crackle, sometime down the road.

We don�t know how much Netflix paid for rights to the film, and we don�t know why Starz � which was an output deal in place with Sony � released �The Interview� from that contract, but the film is unlikely to break even on its $74 million price tag, as it is already moving to other less lucrative platforms.

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Internet TV Services Look to Disrupt Movie Biz

Netflix is already an exclusive distributor of award-winning documentary films � see �Virunga� � and beginning in 2015, it will also become an exclusive distributor of entertainment films. Netflix will release the sequel to �Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon� and four as-of-yet unnamed Adam Sandler pictures.

Amazon announced this week it too will begin releasing original films in 2015. �Our goal is to create close to twelve movies a year with production starting later this year,� said Roy Price, VP of Amazon Studios. �Not only will we bring Prime Instant Video customers exciting, unique, and exclusive films soon after a movie�s theatrical run, but we hope this program will also benefit filmmakers, who too often struggle to mount fresh and daring stories that deserve an audience.�

While Netflix�s announcement irked theater chains, because Netflix wants to release its films on its SVoD service as well as in IMAX theaters, Amazon instead said it wants to give its films an exclusive four-to-eight week period in the theaters, before releasing the titles on its streaming Prime service.

�Amazon has raised the bar with productions in the episodic realm, tackling bold material in unique ways and collaborating with top talent, both established and emerging,� the company said. �Amazon Original Movies will be synonymous with films that amaze, excite, and move our fans, wherever customers watch.�

It�s unclear if either Amazon�s or Netflix�s films will be available to rent or purchase � perhaps on platforms such as iTunes or Google Play � or if the OTT services will prefer to compel viewers to subscribe to access the films. It�s hard to believe such films will be able to generate anywhere near the amount of revenue they do in the traditional window model.

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NBCUniversal�s Burgeoning Digital Empire
-The Live News Internet Channel
-A Niche Subscription OTT
-And Now, Digital Ratings Beyond Nielsen

NBCUniversal is getting its digital ducks in a row in 2015. First, it launched an online-only live news service, called Shift by MSNBC. Then, it launched its first niche-targeted subscription OTT service, Radius. Networks CNBC and NBC both announced they are using non-Nielsen metrics to measure their respective digital audiences; and NBC is showcasing its TV Everywhere platform with a �Super Streaming Sunday� event that coincides with the Super Bowl. There�s no question NBCUniversal has seen the writing on the wall, and is positioning itself to become a leader in the Internet TV evolution.

�The ecosystem of transacting media and reaching audiences, has been generally the same ecosystem for probably fifty, sixty, seventy years,� Scott Schiller, NBCUniversal�s EVP of digital advertising sales, said during a panel discussion at CES. �The ecosystem is looking for content and distribution, as you look forward at 2015 and beyond.�

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Embracing Online Platforms and Distribution for Live Streaming News

National network news is in a period of transition, as consumers increasingly look to computer screens and mobile phones for breaking news and instant updates. NBC�s response to this reality includes putting live news online, through its TV-on-the-Internet service launched late last year called Shift by MSNBC, and its Breaking News app, which was the result of an acquisition back in 2007, and is now part of the NBC Digital News Network.

Shift by MSNBC launched in December 2014. The Internet channel offers a network news-like experience online, with original content and anchors exclusive to the site. The live, online broadcasts occur weekdays 9 am to 4 pm, and loops of programming Web-air during the �off� hours. MSNBC is debuting 14 new programs on the Internet channel targeting younger, more tech-savvy viewers.

The Breaking News app, which is available for iOS, Android and Window Phone devices, initially offered text and clips of video, but last week, NBC incorporated live streaming video into the app feed for the first time. The live stream feed feature has been added to iOS versions of the app, and an Android update is forthcoming.

NBC is hoping to offer live streams of events throughout the day, whether sports, protests, political speeches or late-breaking press conferences. The app sends push notifications to viewers when a live streaming event is about to begin. The Breaking News app aims to live stream primary source video of events, without anchor coverage. Most of the live streamed content will come directly from NBC, but other sources will be used, too, such as NBC�s StringWire app, which highlights video shot by viewers in areas where breaking news stories are developing.

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More Streaming for TVE Platform

On the pay TV front, NBC launched its TVE ad campaign, whose slogan reads �watch TV without the TV,� and the company is now promoting its new TV Everywhere platform with �Super Stream Sunday.� The streaming event, to be held on February 1, will see 11 hours of NBC programming live streamed over the Internet, including the mid-season episode of �The Blacklist,� and of course the Super Bowl American football match � including the pre-game and post-game coverage, and the halftime show. The promotion will give viewers the ability to stream TV content to PCs and mobile devices without having to provide pay TV authentication.

�We are leveraging the massive digital reach of the Super Bowl to help raise overall awareness of TV Everywhere by allowing consumers to explore our vast TVE offering with this special one-day-only access,� the company said. The one-day-only access refers to the fact that viewers won�t need to sign into the app via their pay TV logins. The messaging here is clear: NBC is online.

Focuses on Digital Measurements, Too
The final part of its digital strategy includes updating measurements for off-TV viewing. This week, NBC announced a new program it is championing that will release digital �ratings� of its shows, based on viewing that occurs on mobile devices, tablets, PCs, game consoles, net-top boxes (NTBs), smart TVs, VoD platforms after four days and DVR platforms after seven days. The ratings will include out-of-the-home viewing, an important and growing area of video entertainment consumption that Nielsen cannot measure. Alan Wurtzel, NBCUniversal�s president of research and media development, said in a recent presentation NBCUniversal is investing in digital measurements because it�s predicting its online audiences will grow significantly in the coming months.

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Nielsen Doesn�t Have Many Fans at CES
-Content Owners Are Looking for New Ratings Systems to Capture Expanding Online Audience

NBCUniversal is the first to move out of the world-as-dictated-by-Nielsen. CNBC announced it will no longer use Nielsen ratings for its daytime TV programming. CNBC will instead use research from Cogent Reports to determine its ratings. That�s only for the daytime programming, which CNBC says viewers watch in places outside the home such as at the office, and on devices other than the TV set. CNBC will continue to rely on Nielsen ratings for its evening programs, which viewers likely watch on their home TV sets. CNBC�s daytime ratings had suffered the past few months, which was no was impetus for the network to ditch Nielsen.

NBC will also release what it�s calling a digital ratings program for its prime time shows. The program will include data measured across platforms and devices such as tablets, smartphones, PCs, game consoles, NTBs, smart TV platforms, pay TV VoD platforms after four days and DVR platforms after seven days. It will include out-of-home viewing, which Nielsen isn�t really able to offer at this point. NBC is using data from Nielsen, Rentrak, Omniture, Hulu and other sources to compile the ratings.

NBC pointed to a number of its shows that will benefit from the expanded view of audiences. For example, �The Blacklist� ratings for viewers aged 18-49 jumped 70% when seven days of time-shifted viewing are counted; �Parks and Recreation� ratings more than doubles when more time-shifted viewing is included, as does �Constantine.�

Much of the network�s growth going forward will be in the digital space, said NBCUniversal�s president of research and media development Alan Wurtzel, in a presentation about the new digital ratings system, which he gave at the Television Critics Association.

Those sentiments were echoed at CES, where content owners consistently pointed to lack of measurements as one of the largest obstacles facing the TV industry. It�s only compounding the other issues facing content owners and distributors, such as the migration to Internet TV, predilections to multi-task while watching TV, and a growing emphasis across demographics to watch TV shows on-demand and off the TV set.

�Measurement is the biggest problem facing the industry today,� said Lisa Hsia, EVP of digital at Bravo and Oxygen Media, which is part of NBCUniversal. Hsai was speaking on a panel about the future of TV at CES. �I think that people writing in little books what they watch is archaic, and it�s not measuring content across platforms.�

NBC isn�t the only network upset with Nielsen. Viacom, whose pay TV content targets viewers that don�t spend much time nowadays watching linear TV, has made similar threats to drop Nielsen after its ratings tumbled last year. �We are in a transitional moment with existing measurement services that have not caught up to the marketplace,� said Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman, during an analyst call. �They are trying to catch up. I am sure they will eventually catch up. In the meantime, we are not waiting for that.�

�Measurement systems are antiquated and we have to do things that are very different,� said CBS� Les Moonves, giving a keynote address at CES. He said overnight ratings �are useless,� and that �the idea of success or failure is very different now,� than during earlier periods in TV�s history.

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Linear TV Misses Out on Data from Digital Platforms

The issue isn�t just about accurately measuring audiences outside the live linear broadcast, but about capturing more data about those viewers, which in turn will help networks make programming decisions, and will help advertisers campaign more effectively.

�You have to have the data,� said Hsai. �Companies that started digital-only have a huge advantage over us. Facebook is able to serve exact ads to exact people, and TV�s not built that way.�

Starz�s chief revenue officer, Michael Thornton, agreed. �Coming from a broadcast mentality, we�re in such a bad position, relative to the Netflixes of the world,� he said.

Netflix knows exactly who is watching what, and how they are watching it. All of Netflix�s viewership is tracked and measured, across all platforms and devices. �Starz Play, our HBO Go-type product, gives us that information, but it�s still such a small segment of the population, it�s really hard to track and figure out what�s going on with our viewers,� Thornton said. That�s especially true when content is available across TV Everywhere platforms and SVoD services, and available on devices inside the home and outside the home.

�It�s one of the biggest issues that we face and are working on,� added John Mantell, VP of digital products and video at CBS Interactive. �We�re trying to very actively bridge that gap [between Nielsen ratings and measurements]. We�re still held back by some of the traditional processes to measure audiences.�

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Watch Out Nielsen, Google Is Coming for You
As data about viewers and their viewing habits becomes more important in the TV industry, is it any wonder that data king Google may have something to say about it?

�At Google, a big focus at the organization is around enabling premium broadcasters to be able to deliver and monetize their audiences across any screen, being able to do that across live and linear programming, or VoD programming across any screen,� said Jeff Clark, head of video platforms and monetization at Google, speaking on the same panel at CES. He said data is now a piece of pay TV content negotiations. �Data is the new currency in our industry. Having standardization is key. The transition from linear television measurement to digital television measurement is key.�

Clark said Google wants to lead as �an enabler for programmitc television,� both linear and digitally-delivered. �It�s a huge focus for us,� he said.

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Hotel Rooms, Now With OTT!

Remember when motels advertised in neon tube lights that they rooms they offered had cable TV? Marriott International is currently testing a new program that brings Internet TV services such as Netflix, Hulu and Pandora to room TV sets for guests to stream. The program is available in eight hotels around the world. �We have invited leading technology companies and content providers to work with us to design the next wave in in-room entertainment focusing on on-demand programming,� said John Wolf, a spokesman for Marriott. The company plans to monetize the additional entertainment offerings.

There�s only one problem with this idea � and it�s a big one. Hotels and motels are known for having particularly atrocious Internet speeds and networks in each room � at least in the States. Wouldn�t it be better if Marriott and its cohorts invested more on delivering useable Internet experiences to guests in their rooms � where they could easily access their own SVoD or TV Everywhere services!?

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2015 Is the Age of OTT

�2015 is set to be the year of OTT. Along with the new services from CBS, HBO, and Dish, we expect several other players to launch or announce services in the US market in the next few months. Others are expanding their OTT offerings in order to reach customers both in their home markets and expatriates that want to watch programs from home. This shift to the use of OTT on the TV screen will impact the entire ecosystem, including pay TV providers, broadcasters, cable networks, and advertisers. Everyone will need to adjust to a new way of doing business.� � Brett Sappington, director of research at Parks Associates. See: http://www.fiercecable.com/press-releases/parks-associates-seventeen-percent-us-broadband-households-are-likely-subsc

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YouTube Challenger Vessel Makes Entrance in Beta

Vessel is the latest online video network to hit the Web. It comes from Jason Kilar, founder and former CEO of Hulu and before that, longtime Amazon executive.

Kilar resigned his position at Hulu in 2013, when it became clear the OTT services� broadcast owners had a different vision for the company than Kilar. Since then, Kilar and business partner Richard Tom have been working on Vessel, which is somewhere in between Hulu and YouTube. The service is both ad-supported and subscription-supported. The service promises premium online video � things more like the digital series �H+� than the bedroom confessionals.

The service is currently available on browsers and iOS devices, with an Android app coming soon. Vessel costs $2.99 per month, but there is also an ad-supported service. For $2.99, the viewer gets access to videos 72 hours before those videos appear anywhere else. The free version gives viewers access to videos that are no longer exclusive to the platform, and will appear 72 hours after their initial upload.

Vessel�s tagline is �Watch your favorites here first.� �We are building the Web�s first window,� Kilar told Businessweek. �Early access is very valuable and works well for consumers and creators alike.�

Vessel has an uphill battle ahead of itself. As an online video network, its business model requires scale, which means Vessel needs lots and lots of viewers. It must compete with YouTube, which has become a go-to destination in the destination-less Web, and it must convince viewers to pay $2.99 per month to watch videos on Vessel that will later likely appear for free on YouTube.

Kilar must have hope that audiences will follow the content, and thusly the content creators. That�s why it has made its platform particularly attractive to YouTube�s content creators. Vessel is offering a very competitive 70-30 revenue split, which favors the creators over the 55-45 split YouTube offers (meaning YouTube keeps 45% of ad revenue). As for the subscription revenue, Vessel plans to keep 40% for itself, and split the remaining 60% amongst the content creators.

So far, Vessel has attracted a handful of content creators, including Tastemade, Jack Vale, Epic Meal Time, Ingrid Nilsen and Connor Franta � all of whom cut their teeth on YouTube. Vessel has also signed up some large media brands for content, including A&E, Sports Illustrated, Entertainment Weekly and Warner Music.

For its ad-supported service, Vessel has signed up brand advertisers such as Chevy, Corona Extra, Land Rover, Jaguar, Frito-Lay and Unilever�s Axe, Dove, Suave and St. Ives.

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�Internet TV Is Growing Globally and Netflix Is Leading the Charge�
-Now Has 57m Global Subs
- Will debut 320 Hours of Original Content This Year

Netflix added 4.3 million new subscribers in the last quarter of 2014, to bring its total global subscriber count to 57.4 million. �Internet TV is growing globally and Netflix is leading the charge,� the company boldly declared in its quarter report. �It is increasingly clear that virtually all entertainment video will be Internet video in the future.�

Netflix�s efforts in expanding into new markets around the world are bearing fruit. Its international sub gains outpaced its own forecasts to reach 18.28 million total. It gained 2.43 million in the last quarter. Netflix launched in six new markets in 2014: France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium and Luxembourg.

On the US front, Netflix�s subscriber growth was down in Q4 compared to the year-ago quarter. Netflix added 1.9 million subscribers and now has 39.11 million subs in the States. The company didn�t explain the shortfall, but noted that it likely wasn�t due to the price increase it rolled out last year. �We�ve found our growth in net adds is strongest in the lower income areas of the US, which would not be the case if there was material price sensitivity,� the company said. �We believe there is big growth ahead in the US market for Netflix, even if we may not get there in a straight line of 6 million annual net adds.�

CEO Reed Hastings reiterated his belief that the streaming video service will reach 60-90 million US viewers. �Is Internet video going to be in every home in America in 10 years? That�s a pretty clear yes,� he said.

The company also touted its expansion on pay TV companies� STBs during 2014. Netflix apps are now available on 12 STBs:
-In the States, Dish Network, Atlantic Broadband, Grande Communications and RCN
-In the UK: Liberty Global�s Virgin Media, British Telecom, TalkTalk
-In Germany, Deutsche Telecom
-In France, Bouygues, SFR, and Orange
-In Belgium, Proximus

Originals Are Giving Netflix More Bang for Its Bucks
Netflix said its original content investments have yielded some of the company�s �most efficient� programming, when looking at cost and viewing metrics. In light of this analysis, the company said it plans to invest an even larger percentage of its budget to originals. Part of its push to global markets is related to content acquisition, too. Netflix said it wants to �source great stories from around the world and deliver them to the world.�

In 2015, Netflix will debut 320 hours of original content programming, spanning series, documentaries, films and comedy specials. That�s three times the amount of programming released in 2014.

A list of upcoming Netflix originals can be found here: https://pr.netflix.com/WebClient/loginPageSalesNetWorksAction.do?contentGroupId=10571&contentGroup=Premiere%20Dates

During the earnings call, Netflix CFO David Wells said the company�s original series top the watch lists in international markets. That information �gives us more confidence that when we make something, we produce, we incur those production costs, that it will be an asset that can be enjoyed across markets and across a bigger and bigger set of international markets,� Wells said.

At a separate event this week, Netflix chief content officer Ted Sarandos indicated the company plans to launch around 20 original series each year.

�With the growth of the Internet over the next 20 years, there will be some amazing entertainment services available globally,� the company said. �We intend to be one of the leaders.�

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comScore Releases New and Improved Internet TV Metrics
-Will Measure Views across Mobile Devices, PCs and OTT Services

comScore is expanding its digital video measurement tools to include more device platforms. The new measurement is called Video Metrix Multi-Platform. It launched this week in the States, and may prove to be a formidable challenger to Nielsen in the digital space.

�As content continues to flow across an increasing number of screens, content owners and advertisers need a consistent, trusted way to transact in a platform-agnostic world,� said Serge Matta, CEO of comScore. The metric promises to deliver unduplicated audience measurements

comScore said that by including all devices � not just desktops, which is what comScore was previously measuring � audiences for a particular program can grow from 8% to as much as 30%.

Internet TV providers Hulu, PBS Digital and Sony�s Crackle are backing the comScore metric.

�Hulu has always followed our users wherever they go � we need the measurement community to follow them too,� Peter Naylor, SVP of advertising sales at Hulu. �We�re excited that comScore is making strides to lead us into the next generation of audience measurement and we are proud to be part of the momentum.�

Public broadcaster PBS, which has been using the new multi-platform metrics in beta, said the service �has already offered us unique data insights into our mobile video engagement.� Don Wilcox, PBS Digital�s VP of marketing and services, said �We are excited to continue working with this new product so that we are able to examine where our audience is engaging most with our content, no matter what device is being used.�

Eric Berger, EVP of digital networks at Sony Pictures and GM of Crackle, said the new multi-platform video measurement is �needed to better understand how and where video is being viewed � especially on OTT.�

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Overstock Enters the OTT Business
- Will Rent and Sell Titles

Overstock.com will launch later this year a service to compete against Amazon.com, iTunes and Vudu in selling and renting digital films and TV shows. Initially, it�ll have about 30,000 titles and will in time have original content that it creates.

Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne said, �We think this makes perfect sense for us to get into this business. The industry is going to want to see a competitor to Amazon develop for across the board digital distribution.�

The new Overstock service is connected to its $20-per-year Club O membership program, which offers 5% back on every order, free shipping and other discounts. There�ll be an additional fee for members to stream videos.

The company has about two million Club O members, which it expects will be 10 million by the end of 2015. Amazon is estimated to have 40 million Prime members.

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Bravo Battles Eyeball Drift with Multi-Platform Programming

A popular topic among pay TV channel execs debated at CES this year was how to find and reach networks� linear TV viewers on online platforms and second screen devices. Lisa Hsia, EVP of digital at NBCuniversal�s Bravo and Oxygen pay TV channels, said her company is using transmedia storytelling across platforms to keep viewers engaged in shows.

�One of the challenges that we are facing is how do you change a show from being a one-hour destination to a seven-day-a-week, 24-hour destination, and how do you make it discoverable?� she said. �How can you create content that is not just a show?�

The answer, for Bravo, has been to utilize the second screen as a place to engage with viewers, while at the same time combating �eyeball drift� � the phenomenon of viewers using a second screen device while sitting in front of the TV.

�We�ve done a lot of work in second screen,� Hsai said, pointing to a new companion digital series that Bravo recently launched, called �Secret Service.� The digital series is linked to the culinary competition series �Best New Restaurant,� and runs parallel to the competition and affects its outcome. �We do a lot of transmedia storytelling, which is telling stories across platforms.�

The next task for content owners is to figure out how to monetize those second screen interactions and companion series � in which networks like Bravo must invest money and devote personnel in order to succeed.

She said reaching viewers online, and creating and distributing online video is �increasingly challenging for a small network to do, unless you have scale like a Facebook or Google or Twitter.� Part of the problem is that, on the one hand, the second screen experiences are targeted towards the �super fans,� while on the other hand, it�s hard to monetize video on the second screen unless there is a large audience. �The only way to monetize is through scale,� she said. �Except for the big players, it�s a pretty challenging environment right now, in terms of advertising, distribution.�

Hsai said she thinks there is still an opportunity for transactional components to second screen apps and digital video experiences. �I think there�s a huge opportunity, once it becomes really ubiquitous, to put a transactional layer into television,� she said. �It�s that Jennifer Anniston sweater thing, which has never proved to be successful. I do think the second screen affords an opportunity to really be a game changer.�

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BROADBAND BEAT

The Doctor�s Three Predictions for 2015
- Wi-Fi Hotspots Will Reduce the Costs of Cellular Subscriptions
- Subscribers Will Want Better Broadband, Not Just More Broadband
- What Goes on Behind the Scene Will Count Even More

�The year 2015 will see the rise of roaming between Wi-Fi and LTE networks as a new form of mobile service. Mobile users will start experiencing seamless handoffs between Wi-Fi and LTE networks, and will benefit from both better performance and lower data-plan charges,� according to Dr John Cioffi, the inventor of the telcos� favorite broadband technology � DSL (digital subscriber line) � and founder and CEO of the software company ASSIA, which develops software that telcos use to manage and deploy their DSL-based networks.

That was one of three industry-wide predictions that Cioffi made, which a) impact ASSIA favorably, b) will benefit consumers and c) that we have been reporting on for over a year � not that we are so good but that they have become increasingly visible trends.

The move to cellular-Wi-Fi handoffs will benefit consumers because it reduces their costs for wireless broadband. It particularly benefits cablecos that are building near-nationwide networks of Wi-Fi hotspots. We have reported previously on the �Wi-Fi first� trend where the mobile device, phone or tablet, first looks for a free Wi-Fi hotspot before it connects to a cellular network to make a phone call � all done automatically and invisibly to the user. Some cablecos are using, with prior approval, their subscribers� router to let other subscribers temporarily access the Net.

Telcos are also building near-nationwide Wi-Fi hotpot networks that will help them move traffic off their expensive cellular networks to less-expensive Wi-Fi networks, thereby reducing their costs. Telcos will need this capability as the monthly rates they charge their subscribers declines � as it already has as a result of several of T-Mobile USA�s recent marketing initiatives.

Cioffi�s next prediction can be expressed by rephrasing what some say about 4K: �Not just more broadband; better broadband.� As readers of The Online Reporter know, the importance of quality video � broadband that is consistently fast for every micro-second, will become increasingly important to consumers as they stream more and more 4K content from OTT services. Consumers expect to see flicker- and freeze-free video on their pricey UHD TV sets.

A second Cioffi prediction addresses that issue: �We will see an increased focus on measurement of fairness in the speed and the quality of broadband internet services. Measuring the speed of an Internet connection will move beyond a simple �speed-test.� Consumers will increasingly want to know the connection quality of their Internet services, and what to do if quality is poor.�

Cioffi�s third prediction is not so visible to consumers but it�s like the portion of the iceberg that�s below the ocean�s surface � very, very big. It addresses telcos� deployment, management and optimization of their large and increasingly complex networks � networks that use multiple technologies � xDSL, VDSL2 vectoring, G.fast and other FTTdp networking � all of which are expensive and time-consuming to deploy.

Cioffi said, �Service providers are spending billions of dollars worldwide on building next-generation fixed broadband networks delivering speeds of 100 Mbps to 1 Gbps. In 2015, providers will come face-to-face with the complexity of managing, monitoring and optimizing the services offered over these multi-technology networks. They will look for software-based, big-data-driven solutions to improve their call-center operations, increase the productivity of their technician forces, plan efficiently for capacity upgrades, and raise customer satisfaction.�

Dr Cioffi�s company ASSIA makes software that does just that. ASSIA doesn�t make the broadband; it makes it better.

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The Next-Gen Broadband Connection May Come from Outer Space

Elon Musk, who many consider the Steve Jobs of this generation, wants to invest $15 billion to launch hundreds of satellites 750 miles above Earth that are capable of providing broadband that�s faster and cheaper than existing wireline and wireless networks � and doing it globally. That�s the same Elon Musk that founded Tesla, which is mass producing all-electric cars and about to build the world�s largest factory for making rechargeable batteries.

Musk�s satellite broadband company is called SpaceX. It already has a contract to supply the International Space Station.

Musk says the satellites, whose 750-mile height is much less than existing communications satellites, will provide speeds that are about the same as all-fiber networks such as the one Google Fiber has deployed in a few cities. And guess who is investing $1 billion in SpaceX other than the bandwidth hungry Google, together with Fidelity. Google�s investment in SpaceX is not a sudden impulse. Last year Google paid $500 million to acquire Skybox Imaging, which makes small, high-resolution imaging satellites. They take pictures now. Maybe they�ll offer broadband access to the world in few years.

Musk said it could take five years to get the satellites launched and ready.

Google�s VP of corporate development will join the board of SpaceX.

Musk told Bloomberg Businessweek, �The speed of light is 40 per cent faster in the vacuum of space than it is for fiber. The long-term potential is to be the primary means of long-distance Internet traffic and to serve people in sparsely populated areas.�

The objective, he said, is to speed up the overall flow of data on the Internet and to provide high-speed, low-cost broadband to the three billion-plus people who still have poor access to the Web. He told Bloomberg BusinessWeek the focus �is on creating a global communications system that would be larger than anything that has been talked about to date.�

Musk�s even bigger goal for SpaceX is manned missions to Mars. He said the SpaceX satellite broadband would be needed to communicate with the Mars expeditions.

One rival to SpaceX will be Virgin Media and Qualcomm�s OneWeb, which plans to launch 648 micro satellites to provide broadband and phone services. Branson called it �the world�s largest-ever satellite network.�

Virgin Media founder Richard Branson said there is not physically enough room for two satellite broadband services and suggested SpaceX join with OneWeb.

But Musk has one thing Branson doesn�t: Google.

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�Better Broadband and Private Investment Can Form a Cornerstone of Europe�s Digital Agenda�

�I believe Europeans might have the opportunity to lead the way when it comes to investment in broadband and digital infrastructure. While every investor will think carefully about the legal and regulatory infrastructure it interacts with, it is clear that better broadband and private investment can form a cornerstone of Europe�s digital agenda. To be sure, regulation played an important role in opening up former government monopolies, but the landscape has changed dramatically in telecommunication over the last 15 years. A modern way of regulation has to reflect that and leave more and more ground to market forces and innovation. Europe is moving in the right direction.� � Matthias Kurth, Executive, the chairman of Cable Europe, the association of European cablecos at: http://cablecongress.com/meet-the-speaker-matthius-kurth

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LTE BROADCAST

AT&T Finally Held First Trial of LTE Broadcast

AT&T held the first trial of its LTE Broadcast (eMBMS) technology at a recent college football playoff championship game, held at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

AT&T had a number of partners for the trial, which entailed broadcasting two video streams and one data stream from ESPN to 40 eMBMS-capable Samsung devices. The broadcasts include replay video, footage of plays from different camera angles, and a stream of game stats and trivia questions. Ericsson provided the eMBMS network technology upgrades to AT&T�s 4G network in and around the stadium; MobiTV developed the app that was used to access the streams on the Samsung devices � which were using Qualcomm LTE Broadcast firmware.

�This trial demonstration signifies the early stages of our foray into LTE Broadcast, but we see a promising future with this technology,� John Donovan, SEVP of technologies and operations at AT&T, said in a blogpost. He listed possible uses of the technology such as delivering software updates to any connected devices in the Internet of Things, or streaming lectures to university students, as well as delivering bonus content to attendees at events.

AT&T�s chief cellco rival Verizon has already held a number of trials showcasing its LTE Broadcast technology, which is calls Multicast, at events such as last year�s Super Bowl and a few Indy 500 races. Verizon has already upgraded all of its networks to support LTE Broadcast, and Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam said earlier this year Verizon is hoping to launch a �mobile-first� video service in the latter half of 2015.

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WIRELESS BROADBAND

Verizon Cellular Business Gets Squeezed
- May Sell Some of Its Landline Footprint

An indication of the increasing competiveness in the cellular market is Verizon�s fourth quarter financial report that the results in its cellular business were less than most analysts had expected. Verizon blamed the miss on a surge in sales of heavily discounted phones. It said it had to sell popular phones such as Apple�s iPhone at deep discounts to attract buyers to its two-year contract. As a result its wireless divisions profit margin declined to 42% from 49.5% in the third quarter and 47% a year ago.

Verizon has also quietly begun offering a $35 and $45 per month no-contract plan but the subscriber buys the phone separately.

Verizon added about 2 million new wireless subscribers, of which 1.4 million were new tablet subscribers.

On a different topic, Verizon said it might sell some landline assets that might make more sense being owned by other companies. Although Verizon has done that previously, it�s an indication of what we have previously reported: Verizon has bet its future on its all-fiber FiOS landline network and on its cellular network, not its traditional copper wire network. Verizon did not say whether it might sell its copper or fiber network, but as far as we know it has not upgraded or said it would upgrade any of its copper wire networks.

AT&T has expressed similar sentiments, although it is upgrading some of its copper wire network with newer DSL technologies and has started replacing some of its all-copper network with fiber-to-the-home.

Verizon and AT&T may have found that there is some of their copper wire network they don�t want to upgrade to newer copper wire broadband technologies or to all fiber networks. Pressure from shareholders, subscribers, cablecos and federal and state regulators may prompt them to sell those footprints so they can invest in their remaining networks, especially acquiring wireless spectrum.

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LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS

Broadband Delivered Sports to Increase 10-Fold by 2015

Pay TV services had better get ready for their own OTT services and other OTT services to offer live sports over a broadband connection.

The viewing of broadband-distributed sports will increase ten-fold between 2015 and 2025, according to the research house The Diffusion Group, which studies such matters. It said the consumers� passion for sports coupled with the growing availability of OTT services on the TV and mobile devices will fuel demand. Here�s a summary of the report that TDG did on the matter:

�Whether measured in ratings or revenue, TV coverage of live amateur and professional sporting events is a defining part of the television experience. According to new TDG research, adult broadband users spend one-fifth of their weekly TV time viewing live sports. As broadband distribution begins to play a more important role in feeding this demand, weekly per-capita viewing of OTT TV sports will grow from just under 25 minutes in 2015 to more than four hours in 2025. These and other insights are discussed in TDG�s new report, Game On! The Future of Sports Video Viewing, 2015-2025.�

Joel Espelien, TDG senior advisor and author of the report, said, �Most TV viewers enjoy live sports. There are, however, certain segments that do so more than others. This reality was not lost on Dish, who positioned ESPN front and center in its new �skinny� Sling TV broadband service.�

�TDG research finds that 72% of adult broadband users consider themselves avid fans of least one sports genre (that is, ranking their fan status �7� or higher on a 10-point scale. One-fifth (19%) of ABUs are avid fans of six or more sports, a rate that swells to one-third (33%) among 25-34s. These consumers spend significant time and money feeding their sports habits, forming a group of passionate and knowledgeable fans that is the mainstay of ticket sales and multisport networks like ESPN.

�That said, the majority of adults tend to fall somewhere in the middle, with 52% of ABUs being avid fans of 1-5 different sports. This segment constitutes the modern mainstream sports fan who, because of time, tradition, the popularity of hometown teams or other factors, are more selective in the sports they choose to follow.�

Espelien said, �It is safe to say that the NFL and Olympics do well among this group, as do other traditionally mainstream sports like MLB and the NBA. This group also includes those who are fans of the same sport at both the college and professional level (eg, college football and the NFL count as two sports).�

TDG said the new report, called �Game On! The Future of Sports Video Viewing, 2015-2025,� is a must-read for operators, networks, and sports rights buyers seeking to understand the future of televised live sports. It includes the first publicly-available forecast of the future of sports viewing that includes broadband-based consumption. The report:

- Discusses the dominant role that sports plays in the legacy TV market, as well as the growing use of sports-related apps and Websites;

- Goes beyond ratings or streaming counts of individual sporting events to understand the extent to which sports will transition to a TV-as-an-app platform and at what pace;

- Offers long-term forecasts for sports video viewing on both broadband and legacy TV platforms; and

- Provides strategic recommendations to key industry stakeholders on how best to respond and adapt to these trends.

For more information, please see www.tdgresearch.com or call 469-287-8050

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US Counties with Faster Broadband Grow Faster than Those with Slower Broadband
- 25 Mbps Is the Breaking Point

Most every launch of faster broadband in a particular area carries a boast about how it�ll increase the area�s prosperity. Maybe there�s some truth in that, although keep in mind that this research was done by Broadband Communities Magazine.

The report says US counties that do not have high-speed broadband (less than 25 Mbps by its definition) also have lower population growth and are more likely to see population declines than counties where high-speed broadband is available. It said counties with the highest broadband speeds available (25 Mbps and higher) have the greatest population growth.

The report said, �Access to 25 Mbps service is a realistic indicator that a household or business can use most available broadband applications.�

Broadband Communities studied all 3,144 US counties. It said counties in the bottom half with access to 25 Mbps had an average population growth of only 0.27% from 2010 through 2013 but the top half increased at almost ten times as much - about 2.8%.

The top 10% of counties had a population increase of 3.2% in their states compared to a decline of 0.55% in the bottom 10%.

The unanswered question is which broadband service providers don�t offer at least 25 Mbps.

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Half of HBO OTT Would-Be Subs Will Likely Cut the Cord

Parks Associates is predicting 17% of US broadband homes will want to subscriber to a standalone OTT offering from HBO � if and when Time Warner launches such a service. Parks said the vast majority of these subscribers will also be pay TV subs.

The bad news for Time Warner and the pay TV providers is that Parks is also predicting about half of those who will subscribe to HBO�s OTT service will cut their pay TV cord in its stead.

�Television is not dying, but it is evolving,� said Glenn Hower, research analyst at Parks Associates. �Linear video comprises only a slim majority of video viewed on the TV screen at 51%, and overall video consumption has shifted to on-demand sources. The age of appointment television is coming to a close, and programming will need to adapt to an on-demand environment.�

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DIGIGRAMS

A Trip to the Movies Costs the Same as 1 Year of Amazon Prime?!

�One obvious question arising from the shorter window to SVoD release is whether audiences might be reluctant to buy increasingly expensive theater tickets to Amazon�s movies when they�ll be on the service so soon after (a year of Amazon Prime costs less than taking a family of 4 to the movies, when including pricey concessions).� � Will Richmond, in a VideoNuze post. See: http://www.videonuze.com/article/amazon-expands-into-movies-for-theaters-and-prime-instant-video

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Broadcasters Must Rethink Everything for Internet TV

�To be successful online broadcasters are going to have to completely reinvent the way they think about their business. The requirement that they serve the public interest led them to be generalists; providing a mix of entertainment, news and local interest content. Most Web content providers tend to be specialists, zeroing in on a particular content genre or audience. Unlike in the traditional television world, the Internet affords broadcasters no special privileges enshrined in law. They are just one of any number of other content providers fighting for the viewers� attention.� � Colin Dixon, chief analyst at nScreenMedia. See: http://www.nscreenmedia.com/broadcasters-will-fight-define-online-tv-role/

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TV�s �Not Your Mother�s Media Anymore�

�I don�t watch linear television anymore, and I haven�t for years. I only watch shows I�m interested in; I don�t watch networks any longer and I think that�s true for a growing number of people. The closed system will break up with all of these other opportunities. People�s television viewing is going to be to a program, to a theme of a concept. It�s simply not your mother�s media anymore.� � IAC chariman Barry Diller, speaking on CNBC this week. See: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102341621

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PBS Digital Meets Young Viewers on YouTube

�We saw an opportunity to find an audience that probably grew up with PBS, and had a real affinity for the brand, but really wasn�t watching it on television now. A more Web-native audience. [On YouTube] we�re trying to create the same kind of loyalty that PBS broadcast has.� -- Lauren Saks, programming director of PBS Digital Studios, which runs the PBS YouTube channel. See: https://www.yahoo.com/tech/how-pbs-thats-right-pbs-learned-to-thrive-on-108009265254.html\

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Digital and Traditional Media Companies Swapping Roles

�The industry is approaching a point where the companies in the digital space are starting to look like traditional media companies, and traditional media companies are starting to look a bit more like [digital companies].That�s a natural evolution. It�s not just short video, it�s a whole new medium: how it�s created, how it�s produced, how it�s amplified through social media, how it�s native on devices that are not traditional devices � all of that is now becoming a conversation for all media companies.� � Courtney Holt, chief strategy officer at Maker Studios, speaking at CES.

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Google May Sell Sprint�s & T-Mobile�s Service

�The US wireless business was looking inhospitable already. Then Google showed up. The search giant is reportedly preparing to sell wireless service directly to consumers through new network deals with Sprint and T-Mobile US. The arrangements would, in effect, give Google a way to prod the wireless industry into offering higher data speeds at lower prices, much as it has aimed to do to wireline Internet providers via its Google Fiber offering. For the four major wireless carriers, already in the midst of a bruising price war, such competitive pressure seemingly couldn�t come at a worse time.� The Wall Street Journal in its article �Google�s Call Can�t Be Ignored by Wireless Investors� at: http://www.wsj.com/articles/googles-call-cant-be-ignored-by-wireless-investors-heard-on-the-street-1421959241?mod=djemheard_t

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Piksel Forms Content Acquisition Division

Broadcast OTT services specialist Piksel says it is branching out into content acquisition with a new unit, Piksel Content Services, to help telcos, Internet service providers, cable operators and media companies to launch OTT ventures by taking over the task of negotiating content rights for them, according to Faultline. It has relationships with half the world�s broadcasters.

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